ARM BREAKER

STANDING HEEL HOLD

. If King goes for the KB King's Bridge , now you ALWAYS . when King goes for the

SHH Standing Heel Hold

S.T.F. vs King's Bridge

STF	KB
(50%*30) = 15dmg	(50%*60) = 30dmg

((

STF Stepover Toehold Facelock

is actually (25%+25%)*30 because SDL is also 50%*30))
It can be more accurate to do something like Expected Value = (success*damage)-(volatility*execution). But with only (success*damage), we can say that statistically, countering

KB King's Bridge

is twice as rewarding.

It's like you sit down at a roulette table but red pays 2x than black. So you bet every time on red, losing your money slower than betting on black. Now, you can bet more often because you lose less on lose, and you gain more on win. Now that you are always winning on betting red, imagine the roulette dealer can make any color they want. This is the situation we are in SHH, but the twist is that the dealer is maybe not capable to notice or rig the roulette.

(REVERSE ARM SLAM + REVERSE SPECIAL STRETCH BOMB)

ULTIMATE TACKLE

COBRA CLUTCH

Conclusion

So we have :

: it beat mash + 45% of throws (11/24 without tackle).
: 45% of throws (11/24 without tackle).

BUT

CWFL Chicken Wing Face Lock

In my opinion, there are some paths that are just worse, not worth learning, nor within the scope of a mind game—unless it's a FT100 :

(ArmBreaker->HeadJammer)
(ArmBreaker->CWFL->DragonSleeperFinish)
(StandingHeelHold->ScorpionDeathLock)

so if we remove them intentionally and subjectively we now have:

: it beat mash + 43% of throws (10/23 without tackle).
: 39% of throws (9/23 without tackle).

but if you and if you can (should) notice CWFL, you are now at 47% of throws (11/23 without tackle).